rpvm
May 26 2006, 12:17 PM
American Idol Secret - Impossibility of Counting Votes
rpvm (847 ) View Listings | Report May-25-06 13:39 PDT
I can't believe that there hasn't been any real questioning of the fact that the last three contestants on Idol received almost the identical number of votes. Any mathematically inclined individual would be quick to point out the statistical improbability, the miracle this would entail.
They say that 50 million people voted during two hours for three people on six lines. Impossible. There isn't a phone system yet that can collect information from 1/5 of the population of these United States (250 million) calling in two hours. That is why many people get busy signals. The only calls that are processed are the ones that are able to be handled by the phone lines. The three lines were maxed out. There is no other plausible explanation for this occurence.
There is one company that has predicted the results of almost every competetion by dialing to the different voting numbers and noting which ones had the least number of busy signals. The ones with the least busy signals had the lowest overflow and therefore the fewest votes. According to their records, only one out of every four got through on the last night.
Why else would American Idol deem it necessary to double the amount of phone lines and then double the call-in time for the last event? Essentially this quadrupled their ability to handle incoming calls, but still were about 75 percent inadequate to the number of call-ins. So I imagine that the lines became maxed out again with a relatively equal number of votes for each contestant with the winner based on the difference, the minor vagaries, of each incoming line's hardware.
Maybe Chris really should have won? We will never know.
latinchick133
May 26 2006, 12:27 PM
OF COURSE HE SHOULD OF!!!!! AI IS FULL OF SH@#%!!
Dee Anna Allen
May 26 2006, 01:06 PM
I for one have thought for a long time that they should do something to improve the voting process. Everyone who wants to vote should be given the opportunity to do so and people shouldn't be able to vote hundreds of times either because its not fair and because it ends up being the minority who chooses the American Idol instead of the majority. I think they should let people vote online, but they will probably never do that because they are more concerned about the money that comes in from the phone calls than the contestants and voters.
frankie
May 26 2006, 01:28 PM
I'm so glad you wrote in !!! You certainly sound like you know what you're talking about giving us a logical, mathematically thought-out understanding of what we all felt to be true: something is "fishy" with this phone-in voting. Something never felt kosher. We just weren't mathematically inclined whizzes and able to define it. I just printed your post out. I may even mail it to Chris Daughtry himself. Although, in reality, he was better off not winning the official title. It would have been a bad career move for him: a phone line wrapped around his battered neck. so fate stepped in and saved him from a fate worse than. . .an unfair and slippery voting system.
Kudos to you!! You must be a genuis.
chrisisidol
May 26 2006, 01:41 PM
kudos... ummmm... kudos good...!
lovinthebaldman
May 26 2006, 02:33 PM
i think we the "people" should vote for the person we want to leave the show! there were some terrible people on there and i think instead of millions of people voting to keep someone in and their requests not being made maybe we should be able to vote off the contestants we don't like. i really don't care too much about it anymore, and im sure i won't be into american idol like i did this year, but it's an idea.
ShannaLeNae
May 26 2006, 07:19 PM
Didn't AI say that they would post the voting results from the session after the show was over? Anyone know where those results are??? I, for one, would be curious to see them...
EmoGeek2a2
May 27 2006, 04:19 AM
It doesnt take Math to know that Taylor Hicks dont deserve to be American Idol. Any rational person whould've been convinced get him off the top 12 already.
The results show totally left me unsatisfied coz it doesnt make any sense at all.
down-in-dixie
May 27 2006, 07:35 AM
QUOTE(rpvm @ May 26 2006, 01:17 PM) [snapback]31943[/snapback]
So I imagine that the lines became maxed out again with a relatively equal number of votes for each contestant with the winner based on the difference, the minor vagaries, of each incoming line's hardware.
From what I've heard, in the final weeks when there are fewer contestants, what tips the scales are text messages. I can believe that Kat, Taylor, and Elliot received nearly the same votes because their phone numbers would have maxed out at the same number of calls within the two hours.
HomerJ
May 27 2006, 09:07 AM
I brought up the same point on
another forum.
By the way, the traffic and discussions on that forum went down to practically nothing when Fat Kat and Twitchy Taylor remained .
Lexi Daniel
May 27 2006, 11:49 AM
There is actually a website that hacks into the calls as they are coming in every week and post on the site who will be leaving. The website is called www.zabbasearch.com. Once you get there all you do is type in American Idol and then click the butoon that says submit zabbasearch..... On the page it sends you to you can see the exact total number of votes for each person.
kkard
May 27 2006, 12:25 PM
QUOTE(rpvm @ May 26 2006, 01:17 PM) [snapback]31943[/snapback]
American Idol Secret - Impossibility of Counting Votes
rpvm (847 ) View Listings | Report May-25-06 13:39 PDT
I can't believe that there hasn't been any real questioning of the fact that the last three contestants on Idol received almost the identical number of votes. Any mathematically inclined individual would be quick to point out the statistical improbability, the miracle this would entail.
They say that 50 million people voted during two hours for three people on six lines. Impossible. There isn't a phone system yet that can collect information from 1/5 of the population of these United States (250 million) calling in two hours. That is why many people get busy signals. The only calls that are processed are the ones that are able to be handled by the phone lines. The three lines were maxed out. There is no other plausible explanation for this occurence.
There is one company that has predicted the results of almost every competetion by dialing to the different voting numbers and noting which ones had the least number of busy signals. The ones with the least busy signals had the lowest overflow and therefore the fewest votes. According to their records, only one out of every four got through on the last night.
Why else would American Idol deem it necessary to double the amount of phone lines and then double the call-in time for the last event? Essentially this quadrupled their ability to handle incoming calls, but still were about 75 percent inadequate to the number of call-ins. So I imagine that the lines became maxed out again with a relatively equal number of votes for each contestant with the winner based on the difference, the minor vagaries, of each incoming line's hardware.
Maybe Chris really should have won? We will never know.
That sounds absolutely right. Although AI may not be "rigged", it is certainly an experiment with no controls or boundaries. Some people get through, sometimes 50-100 times, while others cannot cast 1 vote. I personally tried voting, but was never ever able to get through. In addition, Cingular customers have an added advantage, because they can text in their vote. They dont need to struggle through the busy phone lines. Also, how do we know who is counting the votes, and if they are being counted correctly. It is like when a teacher imposes a curve on the test- It alters everyones score. So, how are the votes being tallied, and what type of mathematical system are they using. So AI may not be "rigged", but it sure is fishy the way things have turned out.
Kristina- chris lover
GBB
May 27 2006, 08:42 PM
OK, I don't think American Idol is truthful, but in all fairness the phone lines are not open for just 2 hours. They are open for "at least" 2 hours. This is their way of getting around any mathematical errors. We don't know, but phone lines for Taylor may be open longer for let's say Chris. Whatever, it's better that Chris didn't win, because now he only has to stay with them till after the tour. Then he can do what he wants including writing his own songs. Being the winner of American Idol is great, but getting the exposure and being able to do what you want to do with your career is much much more rewarding.
susou
May 27 2006, 08:46 PM
i dont think it's fair that only those with cingular can text message their vote..
i have verizon!! i want to txt my vote!!!!
Rosered
May 27 2006, 09:02 PM
Thank U for highlighting that fact. Those #s were too close to go "un-talked" about. I also agree that one person should not be allowed to vote more than once, how can that determine a true winner when in actuality that person wins not because of receiving the majority votes.
The voting system was entirely messed up!
thecalifornian
May 29 2006, 02:12 AM
This is my idea for the voting system:
1 vote for each phone number (If you have a cell phone and a home phone you can vote 2 times.)
Then, you can vote online 1 time per IP address.
This way you can make sure everyone gets there input in and it also prevents a mass group of people taking up the phone lines and not allowing some people to vote. It also allows for more accuracy with the probability of who america really wants to win.
Moonsie
May 29 2006, 03:58 AM
QUOTE(thecalifornian @ May 29 2006, 03:12 AM) [snapback]33198[/snapback]
This is my idea for the voting system:
1 vote for each phone number (If you have a cell phone and a home phone you can vote 2 times.)
Then, you can vote online 1 time per IP address.
This way you can make sure everyone gets there input in and it also prevents a mass group of people taking up the phone lines and not allowing some people to vote. It also allows for more accuracy with the probability of who america really wants to win.
That would be the fairest, though with just one household and maybe 5 people living in there, makes it unfair again, also AI won't make that kind of money incoming with the phone votes. So impossible. The idea of voting the person off, that all think is the worst, that is a good idea, but seems more cruel to the person that gets voted off, I think it is easier to hear you had the least votes instead of nearly all people want you out of here.
But fact is they have to do something differently, but no clue what they could do to improve, unfortunately I am no genius.
Crisader '06
May 29 2006, 07:19 AM
Hmmm... Nice post. I never thought about that. That makes perfect sense.
BriHahn
May 30 2006, 04:14 AM
I actually posted an idea for a decently fair voting system in another topic, but I'll run over it again here.
I watched Dancing With The Stars this season, and I think their voting system is actually quite fair, so I thought a variant of that might work. Basically, you start voting in the semi-finals with 24 votes per land line (I think they ban calls from cell phones), 24 text votes (with EVERY phone company, not just Cingular), and one vote per email address. Unlike Dancing With The Stars, where the celebrities are coming in with an established fan base, the AI contestants are fresh faces, so the slight amount of popularity vote that people like Master P and Jerry Rice got wouldn't be a factor until people decide who they like and who they don't like. In the semis, two people with the lowest number of votes get voted off every week, and the next week you have two less votes per land line and text messaging, but you still have one vote per email address. This continues all through the finals, with one person getting voted off each week there, with the lowest number of votes allowed being five per land line and five text messages, one per email address, so basically once you get the to the top five your number of votes won't change until the finale. Not only would this be eminently fair and more or less prevent websites like Vote For The Worst from skewing the votes, but it means that most likely the one person that ALL of America will like wins. I for one think that would make more money for AI, unlike when they have to promote a relatively unpopular genre of music like Gospel for Fantasia or Soul for Taylor; they're guaranteed a winner that the public will like then. Makes sense to me, but obviously I'm not a Hollywood producer, so hey, what the hell do I know?
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